Sunday, October 2, 2011

And the fans rejoice as scoring goes berserk again!!

Well, that took one week.

After a week where the league all but was operating on orders from Vegas to get some money back to the casinos, scoring is back near record highs again.

With the Monday nighter still to play, 2011 week 4 is the second-highest scoring week 4 in the NFL going back to 2001.

2008: 49.15 (mainly held by a 56-35 shootout)
2011: 47.87
2002: 47.21
2006: 46.43
2009: 45.57
2003: 42.93
2010: 41.29
2005: 41.07
2007: 40.57
2004: 38.57
2001: 38.06

So, the current season average list for the first four weeks of the season (Monday nighter of this season to come):

2011 is still the highest-average score in recent league history with an average of 45.63.
2002: 45.38
2008: 45.20
2007: 42.29
2009: 42.06
2003: 41.53
2010: 40.65
2005: 39.83
2006: 39.58
2004: 38.53
2001: 38.47

Meaning we are now four weeks into the season, and, year-over-year, the NFL's scoring is up a solid FIVE POINTS A GAME.

And, since we're at it, let's look and see how much damage Vegas took this week on the O/U, remembering that they were at 70%+ "over" for the first two weeks, and then a 6-10 third week on the "over".

(All information courtesy of vegasinsider.com again:)

DET-DAL: 46 - 46.5 34-30 DET. Over

NO-JAC: 45, with a single 45.5 at the Atlantis. 23-10 NO. Under, the tick didn't matter.

SF-PHI: 43.5- 44 24-23 SF. Over, and did the Philly bettors get burned!

STL-WAS: 44 - 44.5, with one 43.5 at the Wynn. Immediate upward movement when the initial number was 42.5 in most places, but nothing suspicious (the bettors just thought the initial "total" was too low). 17-10 WSH. The initial total was far too high; the game went under by tons.

TEN-CLE: 37.5 - 38, with a couple major moves to get it back in line at places like Stations and the Wynn, where the total actually kicked at 37! 31-13 TEN. Over it went.

BUF-CIN: 42.5 - 43.5, several full-point moves 43 -> 42 about an hour or two before the game kicked. 23-20 CIN. Push at most of the major casinos (except as noted), Under at Atlantis, Stations and the Mirage-MGM, over at the Hilton. You had a middle here!

MIN-KC: 40, and a very rock-solid 40 at that. 22-17 KC. Under it goes, but the total had it roughly right.

CHI-CAR: 42 - 42.5. Original total was 44, and very quickly moved with big under money to where it ended up . 34-29 CHI. $Cam Newton thanks all the under bettors, suckers! Game goes well over!

PIT-HOU: 45.5 - 46.5, depending on how much upward Sunday pressure showed up at the particular casinos, and there was quite a bit where the total got to 46.5! 17-10 HOU. Over bettors with major action get burned, sizzled, and fried, HARDCORE. Under, under, under.

Over-under basically absolutely square: 4-4-1 in the early games.

ATL-SEA: 39 - 39.5, with significant immediate downward movement when the initial total in the low 40's came out. 30-28 ATL. Whee, look at that game go over!

NYG-ARI: 45 - 45.5. SIGNIFICANT CONTROVERSIAL CALL IN THIS GAME, which goes a long way to determining the 31-27 Giants win. Call probably didn't matter on the game going over. If it was a rig, it was a rig for result. (And, given that the Cardinals were involved, that doesn't surprise me a bit. Steelers-Cards Super Bowl, anyone?)

MIA-SD: A solid 45, except you got the tick to 45.5 at Stations and the Atlantis got all the way to 46! 26-16 SD. However you slice it, the number was close enough, and went under.

DEN-GB: 46 - 47.5, which Green Bay alone went over on with 49 in the 49-23 win.

NE-OAK: Somebody was predicting fireworks!! The game opened 53 - 53.5 in most places, and quickly got to where the Wynn opened at 55.5 (and some 56's) pretty quickly! 31-19 NE. Thanks -- for -- coming -- suckers!!!

Over was 3-2 in the late games, 7-6-1 for the week going to:

NYJ-BAL: Game opened at 40.5 - 41, went to 43.5 - 44 before some under pressure came in -- which got summarily burned when Baltimore bitch-slapped the Jets 34-17!!

So that means the "over" for the week is 8-6-1. Not outside the realm of possibility, and several of the games were close to the number, so it sounds like we are getting some stabilization!

Now to check that controversial call...

No comments:

Post a Comment