Studying the NBA Playoffs: Part I

FIRST ROUND COMPLETE.

Brian's doing his normal Free Throw Attempt analysis (and we've already got two live ones in the first six games) of the 2013 NBA Playoffs, but cannot, this year (due to time -- recent surgery and the release of his next book, Larceny Games, later this year interfering), go to spreads or Over/Under stuff.

Well, thank the people at VegasInsider.com for the information, and here's what we find so far:

Source:  Vegasinsider.com

EASTERN CONFERENCE:

BOS-NYK:  (NY Knicks win series 4-2)

Game 1 (Apr 20): Knicks 85 - Boston 78

NYK:  -7.5 (with one -8)  (NO COVER)
O/U:  189-190 (UNDER:  NOWHERE CLOSE)

Game 2 (Apr 23):  Knicks 87 - Boston 71

NYK: -6.5 (BIG COVER)
O/U:  186-187 (UNDER:  NOWHERE CLOSE)

Game 3 (Apr 26):  Knicks 90 - Boston 76

BOS:  -2.5 - -3 (UPSET)
O/U:  183.5 - 184 (UNDER:  NOWHERE CLOSE)

FTA:  Boston 18 - Knicks 8
FTM:  Boston 14 - Knicks 3

Can't fault the refs on trying on that one.  Fact is, the better team is established.  The NBA record for fewest free throws made in a playoff game is 2.  (Toronto actually went an entire regular-season game without making any!)  Milwaukee got that 5/24/01 at Philadelphia.  They, too, won the game.

Game 4 (Apr 28):  Boston 97 - Knicks 90 (Overtime)

NYK:  -1.5 - -2.5 (UPSET)
O/U:  181 - 182 (OVER, but needed the overtime to do it, was 84-84 at the end of regulation)

Game 5 (May 1):  Boston 92 - Knicks 86

NYK: -8 (UPSET #2)
O/U:  183 (JUST UNDER)

Game 6 (May 3):  Knicks 88 - Boston 80

NYK: -2 - -2.5 (COVER)
O/U:  180.5 - 181.5 (UNDER)

FTA:  Boston 33 - Knicks 16
FTM:  Boston 26 - Knicks 13

It's pretty clear that there were some efforts (probably Marathon-related) to push Boston at least a little bit in this series.  The facts are that the Knicks are probably the one major perceived threat to get a game or so off the Heat before The Finals.  That and David Stern is an unabashed Knicks homer.

Covers were 2-4 with 3 outright upsets.  Over was 1-5 in a very low-scoring series.

BKN-CHI (Chicago wins series 4-3):

Game 1 (Apr 20):  Brooklyn 106 - Chicago 89

BKN:  -4 to -4.5 (BIG COVER)
O/U:  182 (OVER:  NOWHERE CLOSE)

Complete reversal of the first two games of the first day (BOS-NYK, DEN-GS)

Game 2 (Apr 22):  Chicago 90 - Brooklyn 82

BKN:  -5 to -6 (UPSET)
O/U:  182.5 - 183.5 (UNDER)

First upset of the 2013 NBA Playoffs.

Game 3 (Apr 25):  Chicago 79 - Brooklyn 76

CHI: -3.5 - -4 (NO COVER, BARELY)
O/U:  181.5 - 182 (UNDER, NOT EVEN CLOSE)

Game 4 (Apr 27):  Chicago 142 - Brooklyn 134 (3 Overtimes)

CHI:  -2.5 (COVER)
O/U:  Irrelevant, really, with 3 overtimes.  Obviously, the game went OVER.  That said:  The number was 176-177 (so the game went over by ONE HUNDRED POINTS with the three overtimes, but the game was 111-111 at the end of regulation, over by 45-46 points -- the game went over very early in the 4th quarter)

Think this helped?

FTA:  Brooklyn 45 - Chicago 29 (Reg:  BKN 35 - CHI 24)
FTM:  Brooklyn 29 - Chicago 20 (Reg:  BKN 22 - CHI 17)

Not a rig for the result, but, in a tournament bereft of drama, perhaps the NBA wanted to manufacture some.

Game 5 (Apr 29):  Brooklyn 110 - Chicago 91

BKN:  -5.5 - -6.5 (COVER)
O/U:  179.5 - 180.5 (OVER AND NOT CLOSE)

Game 6 (May 2):  Brooklyn 95 - Chicago 92

BKN:  PICK - -1 (COVER, FOR THOSE WHO HAD BKN -1)
O/U:  183.5 - 184 (OVER)

FTA:  Brooklyn 33 - Chicago 18
FTM:  Brooklyn 22 - Chicago 13

Gee, why you think this series is going 7?

(ADD:  It's now the only first-round series that will!)

Game 7 (May 4):  Chicago 99 - Brooklyn 93

BKN: -7 - -7.5 (UPSET)
O/U:  182 - 183 (OVER)

FTA's were 20-13 to Brooklyn.

The one series to go 7, it sounds like they let this thing get to 7 and manufacture as much drama as they can.  Not like it's going to matter, winner gets swept by Miami anyway.

Favorites were 4-3 against the number.  Over was 5-2.

IND-ATL (Indiana wins series 4-2):

Game 1 (Apr 21):  Indiana 107 - Atlanta 90

IND:  -7 (BIG COVER)
O/U:  184-185.5 (OVER:  NOWHERE CLOSE)

FTA:  Indiana 34 - Atlanta 14
FTM:  Indiana 30 - Atlanta 7

Looks like a high-level screw there.  Fouls were only 26-19 though.

Game 2 (Apr 24):  Indiana 113 - Atlanta 98

IND: -7 (ANOTHER BIG COVER)
O/U:  187 (OVER:  AND NOT REALLY CLOSE)

FTA:  Indiana 29 - Atlanta 20
FTM:  Indiana 21 - Atlanta 11

It was clear who was getting the push until the venue changed...

Game 3 (Apr 27): Atlanta 90 - Indiana 69

ATL: -1.5 - -2 (BIG COVER)
O/U:  188.5 - 189.5 (UNDER AND NOT CLOSE)

Game 4 (Apr 29):  Atlanta 102 - Indiana 91

ATL:  -1 - -1.5 (BIG COVER)
O/U:  187 - 187.5 (OVER)

FTA:  Atlanta 38 - Indiana 25

Game 5 (May 1):  Indiana 106 - Atlanta 83

IND: -7 - -7.5 (BIG COVER)
O/U:  187/5 - 188.5 (JUST MADE IT OVER)

And this is why it made Over:

FTA:  Atlanta 37 - Indiana 35
FTM:  Atlanta 30 - Indiana 29

5 T's in the game as well!

Game 6 (May 3):  Indiana 81 - Atlanta 73

ATL:  -1 - -1.5 (UPSET)
O/U:  186 - 187.5 (UNDER, NOT CLOSE)

Seemed as if the refs really liked to control the series until Game 6.  Covers were 5-0 before that game, and none of those, much in doubt.

Over was 4-2.

MIA-MIL (Miami wins series 4-0):

Game 1 (Apr 21):  Miami 110 - Milwaukee 87

MIA:  -13.5 (BIG COVER)
O/U:  197 to 198.5 (ON THE NUMBER OR A SLIGHT UNDER)

FTA:  Miami 33 - Milwaukee 20
FTM:  Miami 27 - Milwaukee 12

Even when they don't need the help...

Game 2 (Apr 23):  Miami 98 - Milwaukee 86

MIA:  -14 - -14.5 (NO COVER)
O/U:  197 (UNDER: RELATIVELY NOWHERE CLOSE)

FTA:  Miami 26 - Milwaukee 17
FTM:  Miami 22 - Milwaukee 10  Final margin of victory:  12 points

Game was 68-65 at the end of the 3rd quarter.  By 2:17 to go in the 4th (FTA in 4Q to that point, 9-4 Miami), 96-79 Miami.

Game 3 (Apr 25):  Miami 104 - Milwaukee 91

MIA:  -7 - -7.5 (GOOD SIZED COVER)
O/U:  194.5 - 196 (PRETTY MUCH A PUSH.  DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU WENT.)

Game 4 (Apr 28):  Miami 88 -- Milwaukee 77

MIA: -8.5 - -10 (COVER, on a late pull-away)
O/U: 195 - 196 (UNDER BY A LOT)

Free throws were fairly even for the two games in Milwaukee, but is it any surprise the NBA had the champions finish the first series in the first round against a sub-.500 opponent?

Miami, favored in all four games by substantial margins, covered in three of them, with all four games being either on the number or under.

SECOND ROUND WILL BE:

Chicago-Miami:  Michael Jordan is with the wrong basketball franchise -- it would be erroneous to call the Bob-kitties an NBA franchise at this point -- to think Chicago gets a game off Miami here.  Miami sweeps.

Indiana-Knicks:  Glad there's one series I think that's going 7, because none of the others are.  Knicks in 5.

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

DEN-GS (Golden State Wins Series 4-2):

Game 1 (Apr 20):  Denver 97 - Golden State 95

DEN: -7 to -8 (NO COVER)
O/U:  210.5 - 212 (outlier at 214!)  (UNDER:  NOWHERE CLOSE)

FTA:  Denver 28 - Golden State 15
FTM:  Denver 18 - Golden State 11

Referees definitely appeared to influence outcome.

Game 2 (Apr 23): Golden State 131 - Denver 117

DEN: -8.5 (with one of the first really decent upward moves of the playoffs) (UPSET)
O/U:  207.5 - 209 (OVER:  NOWHERE CLOSE)

FTA:  Denver 36 - Golden State 20
FTM:  Denver 28 - Golden State 15

Can't blame the refs for trying, but when you have no defense to speak of...

Game 3 (Apr 26):  Golden State 110 - Denver 108

DEN:  -1 - -1.5 (Some had GS as the favorite, and then a pick.  Was moving to Denver.)  (UPSET)
O/U:  210.5 - 211 (SLIGHT UNDER)

Game 4 (Apr 28):  Golden State 115 - Denver 101

DEN:  -1 - -2.5 (Make that three UPSETs for Denver in four games.  Denver has been favored in all four contests!)
O/U:  212.5 - 213.5 (JUST MADE IT OVER)

FTA:  Denver 38 - Golden State 23
FTM:  Denver 29 - Golden State 16

It is clear who the referees are favoring.  The problem is:  That team is now down three games to one, and a late layup from a playoff sweep!

Game 5 (Apr 30):  Denver 107 - Golden State 100

DEN: -7.5 - -8 (NO COVER -- no -7s to be found for the push)
O/U:  211.5 - 212.5 (UNDER)

Game 6 (May 2):  Golden State 92 - Denver 88

GS:  -2 - -3 (COVER)
O/U:  212 - 213 (UNDER AND NOT CLOSE)

At one point, this game was 80-62 Golden State in the 4th quarter.

Golden State was favored in precisely ONE of the six games of this series (Game Six), and it was clear that the officials were favoring Denver for most of the series.  But was that $25,000 fine for the coach of the Warriors well spent?  The Warriors went 23-24 from the line, to Denver's 13-21, to eliminate the favored Nuggets.

This was probably considered the highest-scoring series of Round One, but the over (210 and up) went only 2-4!

LAC-MEM (Memphis wins series 4-2)

Game 1 (Apr 20):  LA Clippers 112 - Memphis 91

LAC:  -5.5 to -7 (BIG COVER)
O/U:  179-180 (OVER:  NOWHERE CLOSE)

Game 2 (Apr 22):  LA Clippers 93 - Memphis 91

LAC:  -5 to -6 (NO COVER)
O/U:  180-181 (SLIGHT OVER)

FTA:  Memphis 34 - LA Clippers 22

Perhaps trying to at least consider extending the series?

Game 3 (Apr 25): Memphis 94 - LA Clippers 82

MEM:  -4.5 - -5 (COVER)
O/U:  178.5 - 180 (SLIGHT UNDER)

Game 4 (Apr 27): Memphis 104 - LA Clippers 83

MEM:  -3 - -3.5 (BIG COVER)
O/U:  177-179 (OVER, NOT REALLY CLOSE)

FTA:  Memphis 29 - LA Clippers 17
FTM:  Memphis 22 - LA Clippers 15

For all this talk of the Clippers being an alternative now that Westbrook is out for the playoffs, the officials seem to be favoring Memphis in the series!

Game 5 (Apr 30):  Memphis 103 - LA Clippers 93

LAC:  -5.5 (UPSET)
O/U:  180.5 (OVER BY A LOT)

FTA:  Memphis 33 - LA Clippers 25
FTM:  Memphis 26 - LA Clippers 19

Game 6 (May 3):  Memphis 118 - LA Clippers 105

MEM: -6 (with one -6.5) (COVER)
O/U:  179.5 - 180 (OVER AND NOT CLOSE)

FTA:  Memphis 47 - LA Clippers 24
FTM:  Memphis 38 - LA Clippers 16   Margin of victory 13 points.

5 technicals and a flagrant on the Clippers.  Paul and Billups both ejected.  2 technicals and an ejection (Randolph) from Memphis.

Blake Griffin is not now, and probably is not going to be for some time, an NBA superstar.

The referees in this series OPENLY preferred Memphis in this series.  Double-digit attempt margins in Games 2, 4, 5, and 6 - ALL favoring the team you would NOT think the league would benefit, especially with the Lakers rolling over and dying.

This was even more true than the MIAMI series!  Are we going to find out, at some point soon, that Griffin or Donald Sterling said something homophobic or something?  No explanation of this, unless all the hype Griffin's been getting the last 2-3 years is NOT NBA-sanctioned!

Complete surprise here.  Covers were 4-2, 5 of the 6 went over.

SA-LAL (San Antonio wins series 4-0):

Game 1 (Apr 21):  San Antonio 91 - LA Lakers 79

SA:  -8.5 - -9 (COVER)
O/U:  191 (UNDER:  NOWHERE CLOSE)

Game 2 (Apr 24):  San Antonio 102 - LA Lakers 91

SA: -8.5 - -9 (COVER)
O/U:  188.5 - 189 (OVER:  NOWHERE CLOSE)

Game 3 (Apr 26):  San Antonio 120 - LA Lakers 89

SA:  -6.5 (Was -5 til right before tipoff, then a BIG point and a half move, actually started on 4/25 at -3!) (HUGE COVER IN ANY EVENT)
O/U:  184.5 - 185.5 (BIG move down from 189.5 to start on 4/25)  (OVER, NOT CLOSE, AND WAS OVER AT 189.5 AS WELL)

Game 4 (Apr 28):  San Antonio 103 - LA Lakers 82

SA: - 11.5 - -12 (COVER)
O/U:  188.5 - 190.5 (UNDER)

FTA:  San Antonio 23 - LA Lakers 12 (including 3 technicals for LA)
FTM:  San Antonio 20 - LA Lakers 5

Almost appropriate that the fans at the Staples Center got white towels before the game. Lakers lost all four games by double-digits, San Antonio covered fairly large spreads in all four games. Two games went over, two under.

Dwight Howard was expelled from Game 4 with two technicals.  In a four-game sweep, Howard received four technical fouls in the last three games.  Though the NBA does not suspend a player on their schedule until a 7th playoff T, one has to wonder if the league is going to take action against Howard independently, one of the most T'd players in the league.

David $tern has made it clear -- this IS the Los Angeles Kobes.

OKC-HOU (Oklahoma City wins 4-2)

Game 1 (Apr 21):  Oklahoma City 120 - Houston 91

OKC: -10 - -11 (BIG COVER)
O/U:  214-215 (SLIGHT UNDER)

Game 2 (Apr 24):  Oklahoma City 105 - Houston 102

OKC:  -11.5 (NO COVER, NOT CLOSE)
O/U:  213.5 - 215 (UNDER)

Game 3 (Apr 27):  Oklahoma City 104 - Houston 101

There was no defined favorite in the game.  You could get the game bet either way,or as a pick.  You wouldn't give more than a point either way, but you covered if you went with Oklahoma City.
O/U: 206-207 (SLIGHT UNDER)

FTA were only 30-25, it was the free throws made that won it for Oklahoma City.  They made 28, Houston only 17.

Game 4 (Apr 29):  Houston 105 - Oklahoma City 103

OKC:  -1 - -2 (UPSET)
O/U:  206 - 207 (JUST MADE IT OVER)

Game 5 (May 1):  Houston 107 - Oklahoma City 100

OKC: -8.5 - -9 (UPSET #2!)
O/U:  207.5 - 209 (UNDER -- NOT QUITE)

FTA:  Houston 37 - Oklahoma City 28 (Kevin Durant:  16!)
FTM:  Houston 25 - Oklahoma City 20

Game 6 (May 3):  Oklahoma City 103 - Houston 94

No defined favorite.  Though most of the books had Houston an upset loser (HOU -1 or -1.5), the MGM actually got the game to a Pick about 20 minutes before tip, and a consensus of VegasInsider.com lines actually had Oklahoma City a point favored just before tip.
 O/U:  206 - 207 (A PUSH if you got 207, 206 or 206.5 go JUST OVER)

FTA:  Houston 31 - Oklahoma City 16
FTM:  Houston 20 - Oklahoma City 16

Kinda sounds like, with Westbrook out, the refs wanted this one to go 7 as well!  Houston actually got the better of the free-throw margin by a significant margin in Games 5 and 6, and their poor FT shooting did them in in the elimination game.

And no real assurance that they wanted Oklahoma City to win!  I really think the road is paved for San Antonio right now - they have about the only real backstory that might even do anything for the Heat in The Finals.

ROUND TWO WILL BE (separate post):

Memphis - Oklahoma City (would not rule out this going either way, OKC would almost certainly provide at least a bit more star power for San Antonio, but would not be shocked to see Memphis get the calls again and put out both Oklahoma City and the Clippers.  Prediction:  Memphis in 7.)

San Antonio - Golden State (Only question is if Golden State gets a game off San Antonio.  My guess?  No.  We could be staring FoFoFo vs. FoFoFo  Prediction:  San Antonio sweeps.)
---------

As of right now:

Favorites:  31-11 straight up, 24-18 Against The Spread. (with two games that had options, both in the OKC-HOU series)

East 17-5 SU (3 in the BOS-NYK series), 14-8 ATS
West 14-6 SU (3 Denver, 2 OKC), 10-10 ATS (and two mixed games, both OKC-HOU)

O/U:  20 Over, 22 Under, 2 Pushes -- 10 Over in the East, 10 Over in the West