Monday, May 20, 2013

Studying the NBA Playoffs, Part III

Round one here.

Round two here.

Eastern Conference Finals:

Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers (Miami wins series 4-3)

Game 1 (May 22):  Miami 103 - Indiana 102 (Overtime)

MIA:  -8 (with one -7.5 at the LVH and one -8.5 at South Point) (NO COVER)
O/U:  182 - 183 (Obviously OVER with the OT.  Regulation was 92-92, just over.)

Well, LeBron with a driving layup at the buzzer.  Whodathunk that possible?  Gotta have butts in seats and watching commercials in a series largely-thought non-competitive...

FTA:  Indiana 32 - Miami 25 (IN MIAMI)

Which led to the OT.

Game 2 (May 24):  Indiana 97 - Miami 93

MIA:  -7 - -7.5 (UPSET)
O/U:  182.5 - 183.5 (OVER)

FTA:  Indiana 32 - Miami 26 (Again, IN MIAMI)
FTM:  Indiana 26 - Miami 18 (even with 4 T's on Indiana)

Clearly, now, they have to at least give the illusion, IMODO, that there's a competitive series here.  Kinda, to me, reads like the Golden State - San Antonio series, to an extent.

Game 3 (May 26):  Miami 114 - Indiana 96

MIA:  -2 across the board (BIG COVER)
O/U:  182 - 183 (BIG OVER)

FTA:  Indiana 44 - Miami 28

What the Hell?

Game 4 (May 28):  Indiana 99 - Miami 92

MIA:  -3 across the board (UPSET)
O/U:  184.5 - 186, depending on where you could get it.  (ALL OVER)

FTA:  Indiana 33 - Miami 27

If this were anybody other than the Heat, I'd actually think the NBA would want Indiana to win the series!

Game 5 (May 30):  Miami 90 - Indiana 79

MIA:  -7.5 across the board (COVER)
O/U: 185 - 186.5 (UNDER)

Only 27 FTA's in the game (Indiana 15-12) -- but FIVE technicals (and a flagrant!), the fourth game in these playoffs to have at least that number.

Game 6 (June 1):  Indiana 91 - Miami 77

MIA:  -3 (-2.5 at the Stations -- UPSET)
O/U:  183 - 184.5 (with a 186 at the Atlantis -- all were UNDER)

Oh come now...  You didn't HONESTLY believe the NBA didn't want Game 7 in Miami!!

FTA's were even (Miami 19-18), 3 more T's.  Game 7 is Monday night and I'll be in Vegas.  HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM....

Miami will probably be a 7-8 point favorite, the number probably mid-180s again.  The money line will probably be too stiff at about -400 to do much with, though.

How obvious is this?  JT the Brick of FOX Sports Radio after Game 6:

"48 minutes away from possibly seeing vs . Time for David Stern to fire up the jet and get to Miami for obvious reasons."

A national sports-talk radio host (who wants to see the Heat beaten, by the way), and he says THAT.

Game 7 (June 3):  Miami 99 - Indiana 76

MIA:  -7 - -7.5 (WAY COVERED)
O/U:  181 - 182 (UNDER)

When Floyd Mayerweather is rumored to lay $6,000,000 three hours before the game, you listen.

That was the most obvious rig job I've seen in a LONG LONG LONG LONG time.

No doubt the Heat were going to win the game, but, after Hibbert's comments, the $75,000 fine was the least of his problems.

We get Heat-Spurs, as it was believed all along.

Covers were 3-4, first four games were over, last three under.

Western Conference Finals:

San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies (San Antonio wins series 4-0)

Game 1 (May 19):  San Antonio 105 - Memphis 83

SA: -4.5 (with one -4 at the Peppermill)  (BIG COVER)
O/U:  181.5 - 183 (ALL OVER)

FTA:  Memphis 20 - San Antonio 14

Game 2 (May 21):  San Antonio 93 - Memphis 89 (Overtime)

SA:  -5 - -5.5 (with one -6 at the Atlantis (NO COVER on any of it)
O/U:  181 - 182 (basically a PUSH with a couple OVER)

FTA:  Memphis 26 - San Antonio 17

Game 3 (May 25):  San Antonio 104 - Memphis 93 (Overtime)

MEM:  -4.5 - -5 (UPSET)
O/U:  178-181 (OVER on the OT, needed it, though -- 86-86 at regulation)

Not sure why Memphis (or Indiana!) seems to be getting so many calls in these playoffs...

See ya, Memphis!

Game 4 (May 27):  San Antonio 93 - Memphis 86

MEM:  -2.5 (with a -1 at the Atlantis, a -2 at the Peppermill, and a -3 at the Wynn -- UPSET)
O/U:  182 - 183.5 (UNDER)

FTA:  Memphis 24 - San Antonio 13

Memphis, having eliminated most of San Antonio's major opposition, got out of the way for the one storyline the league can feed to the Heat.

Only Game 1 covered (1-3 ATS), 2-1-1 on the over.

---------

Favorites were 6-5 in this round straight up (Miami favored in all games, home team favored in all games in the West.)  5-6 against the spread.  Totals:  51-23 SU, 40-34 ATS

Over was 6-4-1 in that round.  35-37-4 for the playoffs.

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