As I've always said: To get this far, you need an angle to begin with:
- Kansas City has the narrative of The Next Man
- Tampa has Tom Brady
- Buffalo has "Any Given Sunday"
- And Green Bay has not only Aaron Rodgers, but the one national fanbase who might absorb whatever ratings losses Super Bowl LV might have.
So how's it going to go?
Start with the easy one, the late game:
AFC: Kansas City (-3) hosting Buffalo
Sorry, Bills Mafia.
But you are about to run into a buzzsaw.
There was no meaningful way that Patrick Mahomes was not going to be allowed to play tomorrow. The league is literally banking EVERYTHING on this guy's back for the next half-decade, if not far more. I'd put the over-under on the number of rings this guy gets at about five.
I do think a lot of it is BLM and all that stuff, as I think the NFL, though a right-wing organization, it at least wants to play-act as Black-friendly -- at great cost to it's ratings, mind you.
The one risk, at least this weekend, for them is that Mahomes has something in his head that isn't quite right, and the NFL's concussion disparagement is blown wide open for all to see. Nothing personal against Mahomes himself -- but someone or something has to do that. It'd be about the only way, however, I can see the Chiefs getting beaten by a team which will put up a brave fight, but is basically not ready for prime time -- but the last team standing in the way.
Kansas City 31 - Buffalo 20
The early game is far harder to predict:
NFC: Green Bay (-3.5) hosting Tampa Bay
Brady and Rodgers. That's basically the centerpiece -- and, to put it bluntly, it's an indictment of the league's "It's all about the quarterback." thought process.
I thought back last April, when the Packers took Jordan Love and got excoriated by many in the media and otherwise for the pick of a quarterback to succeed Rodgers, that the Packers were throwing in the towel, seeing that the NFC narrative was now Tom Brady and Tampa Bay.
And then, when the two teams met, Tampa Bay put the one ass-whipping on Green Bay that they got all season (Minnesota shocked a flat Green Bay, but only won by 6 -- and Indianapolis won an overtime decision some saw controversial.). Tampa scored 38 unanswered to whomp them 38-10. No other team this season has allowed fewer than 22 points against the NFL's number-one scoring team.
So why am I not 100% certain that either this is Brady's #7 or a passing of the torch?
One simple reason: Take a look at the other three teams in this. Is there a national fanbase among any of them?
No. There isn't. And as someone who reads the blog and has seen my "Tom Brady as The Great White Hope" concept writ large has noted: 31 teams of fans hate the guy -- more than likely because he has been rammed down the sport's throat for the last 20 years, much of it cheated, rigged and manipulated.
And it's clear that the league WOULD like to get Tom one more on the way out, for his seven to be greater than Jordan's six.
That said, however, the league's very prescient ratings problem could easily see this the least-watched Super Bowl since at least Super Bowl XL.
At the end of the day, the league is a business. That said, my head is 55-45 (percent) Tampa. They put together Brady and Gronk (and eventually AB, though he will not play tomorrow due to a knee) for a reason, I believe.
The problem is: Does anyone really want to see Brady, on a team without a national fanbase, face The Face of the League, similarly without a national fanbase?
And there is the thought that, once again, the league is going for the "State Farm Super Bowl" with Rodgers and Mahomes, who shot a couple commercials together for State Farm before last season.
This is a game where one key refball move will decide the contest -- the question is: WHICH WAY?
The one main difference this year is that Green Bay is not the 14-3 flaming referee fraud they were last year. That, and the game at Lambeau...
Green Bay 28 - Tampa Bay 17 -- but with SEVERE reservations and would not be surprised if it refballed the other way.
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