Monday, September 19, 2011

In thanks to Brian, I decided to expand the discussion back to the first two weeks of 2001...

So take this as an update of the NFL-scoring comparison I started last night. I've expanded, after Brian's note on my study, my spreadsheet back to the first two weeks of 2001.

This is what I found:

WEEK ONE:

2001: 36.2
2002: 49.5 (the only year of the other ten that was higher for week one than 2011)
2003: 40.31
2004: 38.81
2005: 38.44
2006: 34.56
2007: 38
2008: 40.06
2009: 39.31
2010: 36.56

2011: 47

WEEK TWO:

2001: 36.86
2002: 40.88 (an 8 1/2 point drop since week one)
2003: 45.19
2004: 37.81
2005: 35.31
2006: 36.81
2007: 43.44
2008: 45.67
2009: 44.44
2010: 41.44

2011? With the Monday nighter completed: 46.88

So, AVERAGE TOTAL POINTS PER GAME WEEKS ONE AND TWO, since 2001:

2001: 36.52
2002: 45.19
2003: 42.75
2004: 38.31
2005: 36.88
2006: 35.69
2007: 40.72
2008: 42.77
2009: 41.88
2010: 39

2011? 46.94 points per game.

Nearly an 8-point increase year over year, and even almost two points higher than the one year that broke out a bit from this pack, 2002!

Year-over-year, NFL scoring is up 20.35% in the first two weeks of the season.

As Brian Tuohy points out in his NFL 2011 page: RJ Bell at Pregame.com noted that entering tonight's game, 21 of the 31 contests went over the number, only 8 went under the number, and two hit the number exactly.

According to Vegasinsider.com, tonight's number was a fairly consistent 43.5 - 44 for the over/under.

This means that the 43.5 wins going over, and the 44 pushes.

So even on the most conservative of estimates, the "over" is now 21-8-3 this year -- and that's 70.3% .

(If you count the 43.5, it's an even-gaudier 71.9%.)

Those are not numbers Vegas is going to like for very long!! Basically, if you're a bettor at this point, until the NFL decides (ha ha...) to reverse course, take it from this guy who got thrown out of an NBA game by an official -- when he told the official to "take the over"!

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