Leave it to Outside the Lines to come up with
another little gem.
Today's "Rig Job of the Day" comes out of tennis. The US Open draw appears to be rigged to allow the top (at least) two seeded players.
ESPN and OTL examined the draws for the last ten years of all four major tennis tournaments.
They then tried to simulate 1,000 such "decades" of draws to determine the likelihood that a draw which would appear to be random (under the guidelines of the sanctioning bodies and the tournaments) would be as helpful to the top seeds advancing to at least the second round of the Grand Slam tournament.
According to the article, the unseeded players at the US Open are supposed to be placed into the bracket truly randomly. You could get the #1 seed, you could get a qualifier. But it is supposed to be random.
For 10,000 such draws of the US Open, the average difficulty of the first-round opponent for the top seeds only correlated to a difficulty of an actual first-round opponent in one of the last 10 US Opens about 3 times out of a 1,000 for the men's draw.
(Comparing that 0.3% to the other Grand Slams, ESPN found Wimbledon did so a little more than a third of the time (37%), and the French (69.5%) and Australian (71.2%) did so quite a bit of the time.)
One would have to think this is a business decision. I mean, even consider the lower Wimbledon number -- you don't think they want to serve their #1 seeds a dish of Fresh Qualifier To Squash at Centre Court to open their tournament?? Ya think????
The higher seeds, the further they go, people are going to know who they are... And that means tickets and ratings. Think this is coincidence? Really????
And it's worse in the women's draws for both Wimbledon and the US Open. Both the Australian and French effectively do retain fairness in most respects (over 90% of the time in both cases). Wimbledon (and I'd be shocked if this wasn't the attempts to keep the Williams' in the tournament as long as possible for American viewers/attendees/corporate money!) falls to about 30%.
The US Open? They could not come up with ONE DRAW in TEN THOUSAND which was as easy for the top seeds as the draws they've been getting in real life. A -- CLEAN -- ZERO!!!
The results? An average draw for a seeded player should come down with an average rating (if you rank the 128 players in each draw 1-128 and remove the top 32 for seeding purposes) of about 80.5.
The article notes that, for the top two seeds in the last ten years of the US Open, the average rank of the first round opponent for the men was 98.5, and 97.2 for the women!
So I cry ultimate
BULLSHIT when Tournament Referee Brian Earley (who oversees the draw) states this about the US Open draw:
"What would the U.S. Open gain by fixing the draw in this way? I believe the U.S. Open would gain nothing," Earley said. "I think that that would be a risk that the U.S. Open would never take. Never."
BULLSHIT.
You gain viewers, you gain interest, you gain advertising revenue for the television networks, you gain storylines which can be exploited over the course of the two weeks of the tournament.
Especially in the United States, where (outside of the Williams sisters) there are few-to-no meaningful professional tennis players on the world circuit at this time, the better players are going to get people talking.
And you're a liar if you don't think that this doesn't come into play when the draws are made.