- Week 4 average total: 43.53 for the 15 games.
- 4 week average: 46.25 PPG.
- Last year: 52.08 points for the Week 4 games, pushing the season average to 46.2 -- an effective wash with this year's.
- Home teams were 9-5 this week. (1 game in London.) 35-27 for the year. (.565)
- Last year: 8-4 and 38-22 (.633)
- Over was only 5-9-1 or 5-10, depending on where you got Denver/Minnesota. Season over bet is 30-29-4 to 30-32-1.
- Last year: 10-3 for the week, anywhere from 7-12 games below .500 for the year, though.
- Basically, betting the over on a consistent basis is a 2-5 unit money loser this season so far.
- Favorites did not cover the spread very well either, doing the same 5-9-1 as the over did. Season: 28-31-4, about a 6 unit loss on betting the favorites to cover.
- In one game fewer than last week, the same 229 penalties got called as last week. (15.3 a game) And that's pretty much the average for the year, around 15.25-15.3.
- Last year: About 14 per game for the week.
- The BIG STORY of the week: In what I think has to be a record, SEVEN NFL contests this week were decided in Cliffhanger fashion. Baltimore won the Thursday nighter in overtime (and anyone watching the game could've seen this coming!), Chicago won with a field goal effectively at the gun, Washington won with a touchdown in the last half-minute, Indianapolis and New Orleans won in overtime, San Diego won with a field goal at the gun, and Denver got their winning score with 1:51 to go.
- Only two other games finished within a score at the end of the game, and only one further game ended within a score at some point in the fourth quarter. Five of the 15 contests were non-competitive.
- Last year: 1 Cliffhanger, 1 more decided by one score, 3 more within one score at some point in the fourth quarter, EIGHT non-competitive.
- So: Cliffhanger: 13/63 (20.6%) Within one score: 32/63 (50/8%) Within one score at some point in the fourth: 42/63 (66.7%)
- All three numbers are up from last year: 9, 20, and 34 (though that is out of 61)
The truth is not what actually happened. It's what you can ENFORCE happened. It's ALL enforcement.
No comments:
Post a Comment